Supercomputer's Updated Champions League Predictions Ahead of Second Leg Clashes
- Opta's supercomputer has predicted the Champions League winner after the first legs of the semi-final concluded
- Paris Saint-Germain are the new frontrunners after their impressive 1-0 win over Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium
- Barcelona and Inter Milan are level after their tie, while PSG only needs to avoid a loss to reach the 2025 UCL final
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Opta's supercomputer has updated its predictions for the UEFA Champions League trophy after the first legs of the semi-finals, with a new favourite listed in the race for Europe's biggest prize.
Paris Saint-Germain earned a slim 1-0 win over Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium on April 29, while Barcelona and Inter Milan played to a 3-3 draw at Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys on April 30.
Source: Getty Images
PSG struck early in Tuesday’s clash with Arsenal in London, as Ousmane Dembélé fired the French side ahead with a goal inside four minutes.
The Gunners struggled to assert control and could not find a breakthrough in their tie, with the VAR ruling out an equaliser from Mikel Merino.
Despite the setback, Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta remained confident that his side could turn things around in the return leg in Paris.
"We have a lot of chances to be in that final,” he said. “We have to earn the right to be there, and the time to do it is in Paris."
Barcelona and Inter serve up UCL thriller
Meanwhile, Barcelona and Inter Milan delivered one of the season's most entertaining matches, which ended level at 3-3.
The Italian giants raced to a 2-0 lead in the first half, only for the Spanish giants to respond with two goals before the half-time break.
Inter regained the lead in the second half, but Barcelona fought back, with Lamine Yamal stealing headlines for his standout display.
Source: Getty Images
Manager of the Catalans, Hansi Flick, kept the focus on the job ahead:
“The second leg is a final before the final. We have 90 minutes to reach our objective - we still have a chance.”
Barcelona are chasing a first Champions League title since 2015, while Inter would hope to repeat their 2010 success, when they famously eliminated the Catalans en route to the trophy.
Supercomputer highlights new Champions League favourite
Opta’s updated simulations have placed Paris Saint-Germain as the most likely Champions League winners, with a 41.9% chance of lifting the trophy for the first time in club history.
Barcelona, despite their home draw, remain second with a 25.8% chance. Inter Milan follows closely with 20.2%, while Arsenal’s hopes have taken a hit - they now hold just a 12.1% probability of claiming their first-ever European Cup.
With second legs on the horizon, the race to Wembley Stadium is wide open - but PSG currently lead the pack.
Barcelona and Inter Milan will play the second leg at the San Siro Stadium on May 6, per the Champions League website, while Arsenal heads to Parc des Princes to face PSG on May 7.
How Opta supercomputer simulation process works
Opta supercomputer employs a modern methodology to forecast UEFA Champions League outcomes.
It integrates betting market odds with Opta Power Rankings, which assess team strength based on historical and recent performances. This model estimates probabilities for various outcomes, such as match results and likely winners.
The approach also allows for dynamic updates to predictions as the competition progresses. For instance, if a team like Real Madrid, initially favored with a 23.9% chance of winning, is eliminated, the model recalibrates, potentially elevating another team's chances, such as Barcelona's increasing to 20.4%.
The supercomputer relies on both market data and performance metrics to ensure a comprehensive analysis.
However, these predictions are grounded in data as they cannot account for every variable, such as sudden injuries or unexpected tactical changes. Therefore, these forecasts should be considered as part of a broader analysis when evaluating team prospects in the Champions League and is not 100% certain.
Arsenal's UCL loss blamed on Thomas Partey
Meanwhile, a former English international has highlighted how costly Thomas Partey's missing the UCL semi-final first leg was for Arsenal.
YEN.com.gh reported that Daniel Sturridge gave a critical view of the situation, with the Gunners midfielder booked during the quarter-final stage.
Nomso Obiajuru was a contributing writer in this article
Source: AFP
